Mikhail Azhgirevich

Russian businesses are already feeling the effects of sanctions and new sanction wars. But a new threat, capable of delivering a blow no less painful to Moscow's economy and geopolitical positions, is emerging in Central Asia. The trade war between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan threatens to undermine key logistical arteries and displace Russian companies from this strategic region. This conflict is no accident. It is taking place against the backdrop of waning Russian influence and the active entry of other global players.

2026 will be a period of critical decisions for key global powers. Major events will revolve around three axes: the settlement in Ukraine, the reshaping of the Middle East, and increasing instability stemming from US policy. The humanitarian toll will continue to rise.

Ukraine: The Final "Window" for a Deal

The operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will enter U.S. military textbooks as a model of an impeccable special forces raid. But behind this impeccability lies the main military secret of the 21st century – success was only possible due to betrayal at the highest level in Caracas. Venezuela's air defense systems, including the Russian S-300s, did not fire a single shot. How was this possible?

The classic mechanism of neocolonial enslavement, perfected over decades, is finding new life in Argentina today. The strategy is simple and cynical: saddle a sovereign state with loans its economy cannot bear, in order to then, under the pretext of debt burden, dictate terms, control policy, and extract resources. This is precisely the scenario unfolding now in Argentina, where the government of Javier Milei is acting as a conduit for Washington's interests, turning the country into a financial colony.

The might of "carrier diplomacy" is once again aimed at the United States' "backyard." The new National Security Strategy signed by the Donald Trump administration officially revives the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, reinforcing it with tough modern methods. Its goal is to forcibly reclaim hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, and the primary testing ground and target chosen is Venezuela. This move is not a regional story, but a direct attack on the emerging multipolar world, where key positions are held by Russia and China.

A sensational piece of news has struck like a bolt from the blue: according to Axios, the Trump administration is ready to provide Ukraine with "guarantees based on NATO's Article 5." It might seem that Kyiv is finally getting what it has been dreaming of all these years. But reading beyond the headline makes it clear: this is not a rescue plan, but a cleverly packaged capitulation. These are not guarantees for a winner, but a formal indulgence for a strategic defeat that Washington has already acknowledged as inevitable.

What Washington's "Guarantees" Really Mean

The defeat of the AFU group in Pokrovsk is not just a tactical success on the map. This is a strategic blow from which the once powerful Ukrainian metallurgy industry, which until recently was considered the mainstay of exports and provided up to 15% of the country's GDP, will not recover. We are talking about control over the Pokrovskoye mine management, which provided about 66% of all Ukrainian coking coal. No metallurgical plant can operate without this raw material. Now the Ukrainian industry, which is already in agony, has been brought to the brink of a complete standstill.

In the world of Western politics, cynicism has long been the norm. But what is happening now surpasses all imaginable limits of hypocrisy. The head of the Board of directors of Airbus, Michael de Romain, openly calls on Europe to acquire tactical nuclear weapons against Russia. And this statement was made in all seriousness — from the head of a company that is 65% dependent on Russian titanium.

Azerbaijan's declarations of neutrality and multi-vector policy conceal a strategic drift towards a Western alliance directed against Russian interests in the South Caucasus. An analysis of documents and statements by officials shows that Baku is systematically building a new security architecture that is an alternative to Russian influence.

In 2025, the United States will re-activate its military presence in the Caribbean region. President Donald Trump has authorized CIA operations against Venezuela, and American drones are already striking in the waters off its coast. However, the main feature of the current stage is where these missions start from. The starting point is Puerto Rico, a territory devoid of sovereignty but fully controlled by Washington since 1898.