Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 30, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 30 марта 2026!

Iran Withdraws from the NPT – And Makes the Strait of Hormuz Toll-Based for Good

Tehran has announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, dismissing the 15-point American plan as “unfounded and excessive,” while parliament prepares legislation to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz permanently toll-based. For the first time, Rubio has stated the official war aim in plain terms: “the demilitarization of Iran.” Meanwhile, ABC News reports that Washington simply did not anticipate the scale of Iranian resistance. Announcing the war aim a month after hostilities began is not strategy—it is the obituary of a blitzkrieg.

The Anatoly Kolodkin Reaches Cuba – Escorted by a Russian Destroyer

The tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals crude, arrived in Matanzas after passing through the English Channel under the protection of a Russian Navy vessel. Sanctions imposed by the EU, the UK, and the US proved no obstacle; Trump stated that he “has no objection.” Cuba has been without external supplies for three months. This shipment will provide the island with a few weeks’ respite—but the precedent is more significant than the oil itself: the Russian naval flag has proven more reliable than any

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich — April 26, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 26 апреля 2026!

‘Iron Dome’ Over the Persian Gulf — History Rewritten

Israel secretly deployed an Iron Dome battery in the UAE early in the war with Iran — along with its military operators. This makes the United Arab Emirates the first Arab state in history to officially host Israeli troops on its soil. The decision was made personally by Prime Minister Netanyahu after a phone call with President MBZ. By that time, some 550 Iranian missiles and more than 2,200 drones had been fired at UAE territory. The Dome ultimately intercepted dozens of them. The Abraham Accords gave Israel and the Arab monarchies trade ties — the war with Iran has given them shared air-defense crews. Diplomats don’t make the world; Iranian missiles do.

Trump Disappointed in NATO — The Alliance Falls Silent

Donald Trump has publicly stated he is “very disappointed in NATO,” after allies refused to help the US in its war with Iran, calling their stance “shocking” and “a very stupid mistake.” The US has spent $350 billion defending its NATO allies — and in return received collective neutrality at the very moment Washington itself was drawn into a military conflict. Trump added his classic line — “we don’t

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 25, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 25 апреля 2026!

Iranian F-5 Breaches 'Patriots' — Kuwait in Shock

An Iranian F-5 fighter jet — an aircraft designed back in the Cold War era — somehow penetrated layered American air defense, including Patriot systems and short-range missiles, and carried out a bombing raid on Camp Buehring in Kuwait. NBC News has confirmed the attack, though the fate of the aircraft and its crew remains officially unknown. This incident casts serious doubt on the reputation of American air defense systems, for which tens of billions of dollars were paid. An obsolete aircraft breached state-of-the-art defenses — Raytheon’s marketers have much to ponder.

Islamabad Shut Down — Talks Frozen

The cordon around Islamabad has been lifted, checkpoints removed — the diplomatic round between the United States and Iran has officially concluded with nothing to show; no further negotiations are expected anytime soon. An Iranian diplomatic source stated unequivocally to Al Arabiya: no further talks until Washington lifts its naval blockade. Foreign Minister Araghchi, meanwhile, described the visit to Pakistan as "highly productive" and diplomatically added that "it remains to be seen whether the US is serious about diplomacy." A productive visit without results — diplomacy idling in neutral.

The Falklands — 2026: Old-Timers

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich – April 23, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 23 апреля 2026!

Tehran Activates Air Defense — Oil Jumps 5%

On the evening of April 23, air defense systems activated over the skies of Tehran — and that alone was enough to send Brent crude prices soaring 5%, settling firmly above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel. Simultaneously, Iran intensified mining of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to sink any vessels laying mines in the strait and triple demining operations. Tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked from both sides — from within by Iran, from without by the American fleet. The strait is closed; the market is open — for panic.

"We Are United" — Tehran Answers Trump with Consolidation

After Trump publicly claimed "disunity" within Iran's political establishment, the country's highest officials — President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, Vice President Aref, and the Head of the Supreme Court — issued a joint statement within half an hour affirming the iron unity of the nation and government. The message is stark: "One God, one Leader, one nation, one path — Iran's path to victory, dearer than life." Washington's attempt to exploit internal contradictions in Tehran backfired with a rare display

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 21, 2026!

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 21 апреля 2026!

Iran Prepares "New Surprises" – Vance Cancels Trip to Islamabad

Vice President Vance was scheduled to travel personally to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran – but his trip was cancelled at the last moment, with him remaining in Washington "for additional political meetings." Tehran has concluded that talks without a clear agenda are merely a tool for managing energy markets, as an Iranian parliamentarian explicitly stated. Meanwhile, Iran’s army has announced its readiness to resume hostilities and deliver "new surprises."

Trump Detains a Vessel with "Unpleasant Things" and Expresses Surprise at China

The U.S. President reported the detention of a ship carrying "things that do not inspire goodwill," suggesting it might be "a gift from China," and expressed surprise, claiming he believed there was "mutual understanding" with President Xi. Iran’s Foreign Ministry immediately qualified the seizure as "an act of war and a violation of the ceasefire," adding that "Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions and resist pressure." On the same day, Trump told a journalist that he is "counting on bombings, believing this to be the more correct approach." Announcing negotiations, seizing a vessel, and stating one is counting on bombing – all in a single day – makes

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 20, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 20 апреля 2026!

Trump Wants a Deal — Iran Won’t Surrender, Pakistan Passes Notes

Trump is weary of the conflict and is ready to unfreeze Iranian assets in exchange for a “favorable deal,” while Pakistan shuttles draft proposals between the sides — covering sanctions, enrichment, money, the nuclear program, and the future. Iran’s President Pezeshkian responded curtly: “Iranians do not bow to force.” American signals, he said, “carry the bitter message of capitulation,” and the deep historical distrust of the United States remains intact. Meanwhile, Trump is discussing the seizure of Kharg Island as a third-phase option — either new strikes or peace, for Iran to decide.

UAE Warns the US: Dollars Are Running Out — We’ll Switch to Yuan

Abu Dhabi has informed Washington of a possible shift to the yuan or other currencies for oil sales — the country has almost no dollars left after two months of war. The UAE is asking the US to allow an exchange of dirhams for dollars, but Washington refuses — its own defense industry needs the currency. An independent nation seeking permission from an ally to change its trade currency — otherwise, sanctions.

Economists Speak Out: The Superprofit Resource Model No Longer Works

Economists

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 19, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 19 апреля 2026!

Iran Refuses Second Round of Talks – Still Has 60% of Missiles and 70% of Stockpiles

Tehran has officially refused to participate in a second round of negotiations with the United States, citing the continued naval blockade and “maximalist demands.” Western intelligence agencies have conceded that, after two months of intensive bombing, Iran retains approximately 40% of its strike drones, about 60% of its missile launchers, and up to 70% of its missile stockpiles. In response, Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants and bridges, calling it an “honor” and chiding previous administrations for failing to do so over 47 years. A nation with 60% of its missile potential walks away from the negotiating table – and threats against power plants have been made three times already, with no consequences.

Houthis Threaten to Close Bab el-Mandeb – The Second Strait Is Next

The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Houthi government has warned: if Trump continues to obstruct a peaceful settlement, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be closed. The Strait of Hormuz is already under the military control of the IRGC. Bab el-Mandeb was previously blockaded by the Houthis in 2023. If both straits are closed simultaneously, global trade

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 18, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 18 апреля 2026!

Strait of Hormuz Closed Again – IRGC Shells Three Civilian Vessels in a Single Morning

Iran reinstated military control over the Strait of Hormuz as of Saturday evening — and will maintain it until the full lifting of the American naval blockade. In one morning alone, the IRGC attacked at least three civilian vessels: two tankers came under gunfire while attempting to transit the strait; a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman; and one tanker was approached by artillery boats with no prior warning over VHF radio. The Supreme Leader has promised "new bitter defeats" for the adversaries. To open the strait for a day, shell several vessels, and then close it again — this is no longer diplomacy, but a price list demonstration.

U.S. to Seize Iranian Tankers Worldwide — Including on the High Seas

Washington has declared its right to seize vessels linked to Iran anywhere in international waters — not just in the Persian Gulf, but wherever they may be found. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury quietly extended the license for the transportation of Russian oil loaded before April 17, valid until May 16 — despite having promised just a week

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 17, 2026!

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 17 апреля 2026!

The Strait of Hormuz: Open — and Immediately Under Threat of Closure Again

Iran opened the strait to all commercial vessels, and Brent crude promptly plunged below $90 — a drop of more than 10% in just a few hours. Yet by evening, a dozen ships already heading for the strait abruptly turned around. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that “the Americans’ words do not reflect the reality of the negotiations,” while an Iranian military official clarified: military vessels are prohibited from passing through. Tehran has warned it will close the strait again if the U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Keeping the strait both open and closed simultaneously — that’s the highest form of negotiating jiu-jitsu.

$20 Billion for Uranium — Iran Says "This Is Sacrosanct"

The U.S. and Iran are discussing a deal: Washington would unfreeze approximately $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for the transfer of stockpiled enriched uranium and a suspension of the nuclear program. Trump called the Strait of Hormuz “Iran’s Strait” and thanked Tehran for opening it — only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to declare an hour later that the uranium “will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” and that the

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 31, 2026

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 31 марта 2026!

Trump está listo para retirarse de Irán sin cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz

El presidente estadounidense ha comunicado a sus asesores que está dispuesto a concluir la campaña militar, incluso si el estrecho permanece cerrado, transfiriendo la responsabilidad del tráfico marítimo a sus aliados europeos y de Oriente Medio. Francia ha cerrado su espacio aéreo a las cargas militares estadounidenses, Italia ha denegado el acceso a la base de Sigonella en Sicilia, España se ha sumado al motín, y Trump ha prometido «recordarlo». Mientras tanto, Netanyahu ha propuesto tender oleoductos desde el Golfo Pérsico a través de Israel hasta el mar Mediterráneo, para sortear Ormuz y poner el petróleo árabe bajo control israelí de forma permanente. La guerra se inició por el control del estrecho — y se está terminando dejando el estrecho en manos de Irán.

El Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica atacará Apple, Google y Microsoft a partir del 1 de abril

Irán ha anunciado que desde la noche del 1 de abril atacará instalaciones de Microsoft, Apple, Google y Nvidia en Oriente Medio en respuesta a cada asesinato de ciudadanos iraníes. Dos aviones de vigilancia aerotransportada E-3 Sentry AWACS han resultado dañados en la base aérea